Consumer dynamics are coming to fruition in a supportive marketplace
Markets are always demanding (and simultaneously interesting) because they never really allow you to settle in - there's constant flux around every potential dynamic. That reality played out in May for the beef complex. And in my attempt to walk that line, last month's Monthly Market Profile opened with somewhat of a celebratory note touting the market as, "Almost too good to be true!" However, it also ended with a cautionary tone about market sentiment: "...it's time to turn bearish when everything, or everyone, appears bullish," including the warning to "tread carefully."
In retrospect there was no "almost" about it - it probably was too good to be true. Unfortunately, that makes the latter "tread carefully" portion the half that was mostly correct. The fed market has experienced a sharp correction in recent weeks transitioning from a seasonal high of $100 in early May down to $92 during the course of just four weeks. That's equivalent to a weekly equity loss of about $25/head. And now the market is on the defensive in search of support levels in coming weeks and months. From a historical perspective, this year's market has downside risk back to the mid-$80s during the course of the coming summer.
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