U.S. corn supplies are projected at a record 14.5 billion bu., up 134 million from the previous record in 2007-08, according to the monthly "World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates" (WASDE) released Wednesday. That’s true even though corn usage is projected higher.
One reason is a boost in the estimate of 2009-10 corn production by 417 million bu. to 12.8 billion bu.
According to WASDE, ending corn stocks are projected up 71 million bu., with higher expected use partly offsetting the increase in production. The 2009-10 marketing-year average farm price is projected at $3.10-$3.90/bu., down 25¢ on both ends of the range. The marketing-year average reflects higher prices for corn sold for forward delivery over the past several months ahead of the sharp downturn in futures and cash market prices since early June.
Likewise, U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2009-10 are projected 36 million bu. higher this month as higher forecast production more than offsets an increase in projected use and lower imports. Wheat production for 2009-10 is forecast 71 million bu. higher at 2.184 billion bu. The 2009-10 marketing-year average farm price is projected at $4.70-$5.70/bu., down 10¢ on both ends of the range.
U.S. soybean production is estimated at 3.2 billion bu., 61 million below the July projection, but 240 million bu. more than last year’s crop. Soybean stocks are projected at 210 million bu., down 40 million from July as reduced supplies are only partly offset by reduced crush and exports.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2009-10 is projected at $8.40- $10.40, up 10¢ on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are projected at $260-$320/short ton, up $5 on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are projected at 32-36¢/lbs., up one cent on both ends of the range.
For the week ending Aug. 9, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service:
Corn – 89% is at or beyond silking, 2% behind last year and 7% behind the five-year average. Crop development was at or behind in all states except Colorado, where 27% of the crop began silking during the week, leaving progress 9 points ahead of the average. 24% is at or beyond the dough stage, 4% behind last year, and 24% slower than average – one week behind. The biggest delays were evident in Illinois and Indiana, where progress was more than two weeks behind average. 5% of acreage reached the dent stage, 1% behind last year and 9% behind normal. Denting had not yet begun in most of the Corn Belt, but was ahead of average in Texas. 68% is reported Good to Excellent, 1% more than a year ago.
Soybeans – Blooming reached 86% overall. That’s 1% behind last year, and 7% behind average. Blooming was active across much of the growing region; progress remained at or behind average in all estimating states. Pod setting reached 55%, which is two points behind last year, and 17% behind average. The crop in Illinois, Michigan and North Dakota experienced lags of 34 points or more, leaving progress over one week behind normal. 66% is rated as Good to Excellent, which is 3% more than at the same time last year.
Winter Wheat – 91% of the crop is harvested, on par with last year, but 3% slower than average. Harvest remained most active in the Pacific Northwest, Michigan, Montana and South Dakota.
Spring wheat – 8% has been harvested, which is 7% behind last year and 23% or one week behind the average pace. South Dakota producers utilized 3.9 days suitable for fieldwork to harvest 25% of their crop during the week. 72% of the crop was rated Good to Excellent, 13% more than a year ago.
Barley – 5% is harvested, which is 15% in back of last year and 28% behind the average pace. Hot, dry conditions in Washington helped to quickly dry the crop, allowing producers to harvest 7% of their acreage during the week.78% is rated Good to Excellent, which is 26% more than a year ago.
Sorghum – 61% is at or beyond heading, 1% behind last year and 9% behind the average pace. Sorghum coloring has reached 33% complete, 2% behind last year and one point behind the five-year average. Progress was behind the average pace in all states except Colorado, Louisiana and Texas where above-average temps aided crop development. 27% has reached maturity, 1% less than last year, and 2% behind average.49% is rated Good to Excellent, 1% less than the same time a year ago.
Oats – 48% of the crop is in the bin, which is 6% behind last year and 21% or a week behind the five-year average. Harvest was active across much of the growing region, with producers in Ohio reaping 39% of their crop during the week. 56% was rated Good and Excellent, compared to 55% at the same time last year.
Pasture – 51% of the nation’s pasture and range is still rated as Good or Excellent this summer, 12% more than at the same time last year. 22% is rated Poor or Very Poor, compared to 31% a year ago.
States with the worst pasture conditions – at least 40% of the acreage rated Poor or worse – include: Arizona (83%); California (90%); and Texas (51%).
The lushest conditions – at least 40% rated Good or better – exist in: Alabama (71%); Arkansas (57%); Colorado (58%); Florida (80%); Georgia (40%); Idaho (70%); Illinois (76%); Indiana (65%); Iowa (67%); Kansas (66%); Kentucky (79%); Louisiana (49%); Maine (62%); Maryland (48%); Minnesota (45%); Mississippi (64%); Missouri (70%); Nebraska (75%); Nevada (57%); New York (77%); North Carolina (51%); North Dakota (68%); Ohio (58%); Oklahoma (42%); Pennsylvania (64%); South Carolina (40%); South Dakota (74%); Tennessee (77%); Utah (75%); Virginia (69%); West Virginia (70%); and Wyoming (66%).