Harlan Ritchie, Steven Rust and Daniel Buskirk, Michigan State University beef cattle specialists, offer the following short- and long-term outlooks for U.S. beef producers.

The trends for the remainder of 2006 include:

• Corn prices in 2006 will average $1.75-$1.85/bu.
• 2006 fed-cattle harvest will tally 27.9 million head, up from 27 million in 2005.
• Fed-cattle prices will average $85/cwt. in 2006. Prices will trade in the low to mid $90s the first quarter, hit the low in summer at mid to upper $70s, and rebound to mid $80s in fall.
• The Choice/Select price spread will average near $10/cwt. in 2006, similar to 2005.
• Feeder-cattle prices (750-lb. steers) averaged $110/cwt. in 2005, but will be $3-$4 lower in 2006; while 550-lb. steers, which averaged $128/cwt. in 2005, will be down $3-$5 in 2006.
• Steer-carcass weights averaged 816 lbs. in 2005, but will be heavier in 2006.
• Bred-cow prices were record-high in 2006 with prices averaging $1,165; top-end bred heifers and cows brought $200-$400 more than the average. Prices will soften by late 2006 and 2007.

• Producer margins will narrow, likely turning negative for growers and feeders.
• Retail, foodservice and packer margins will improve as domestic slaughter and beef supplies increase.
• Cow-calf profit margins will remain positive, but prices will trend lower through decade's end.
• Significant structural change is underway in all industry sectors. A coordinated production system is evolving and feedyards will be the collection point.
• Fewer cattle will trade in the cash market and more will trade on a beef-value basis.
• Product branding will become the norm and more price differentiation will occur at all levels.
• Foodservice market share, as a percent of total beef sales, will surpass retail in the next five years.
• The U.S. will have to adopt animal ID and source verification in the post-BSE environment in order to compete in the global market.
• Because the U.S. meat supply is among the world's safest, demand for U.S. products will be strong.