Crops may fall short of USDA estimates in 2012.
After a November USDA Crop report described as "pretty boring," Ohio State University Extension economist Matt Roberts says the grain markets are largely watching other markets, awaiting thoughts of buying acres for 2012 production.
"The grain market overall did not look at the report as particularly bullish or bearish," Roberts says. "The market, over the past few weeks, has been much more influenced by the outside markets, primarily equities and the European debt situation. Those have been much bigger factors than grain market fundamentals."
Roberts says USDA's latest crop production figures and estimates of supply and demand yielded few significant changes.
The report, released Nov. 9, shows a decrease in corn production of 1.4 bu./acre, down to an average yield of 146.7 bu. Roberts says that figure indicated the lowest yield in eight years. The report suggested a 123 million bu. cut in total production from the previous month's report, while cutting consumption of feed grains by 100 million bu. due to lower broiler numbers and expected price rationing.
"People were looking for yield revisions in corn and soybeans, because we continue to be uncertain about yields," he explains. "Every report that comes out is a suspense-filled event, and we had projections for corn yields all over the place."