Chinese consumers will likely have displaced U.S. consumers as the engine of growth in the global economy by 2014, says the Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB).
The study by CSFB's global equity strategy team forecasts the U.S. dollar value of Chinese consumption spending in 10 years will represent 37% of the U.S. and 11% of global consumption spending, vs. 9% and 3% in 2004, respectively. For 2004, the CSFB estimates U.S. dollar value of Chinese household consumption spending as $704 billion (US), with the number likely to increase to $3,726 billion in 2014.
The study also projects a total of 151 million Chinese urban households earning more than $10,000 (US)/year by 2014 vs. 4 million households at the end of last year. Average personal income in China has risen 24% in the last three years, most rapidly for younger people.