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Fear and Greed, And Supply and Demand
After three years of record-breaking, bin-busting corn
harvests, corn prices have defied all conventional wisdom by
skyrocketing. Bred females have lost $300 and calves $150/head in the
initial market implosion.
In the short-term, fear and greed rules, and they certainly took over
the last several weeks. When one domino fell, the others followed
closely, and market fundamentals became irrelevant. We went from a
"never having another bad day" attitude to "we are heading to zero at
Mach 1."
While the reality is somewhere in between, the situation illustrates why
commodity producers always seem to focus on supply. It's not because
supply is the biggest factor; it's simply the factor we can quantify
either before or after the effect, and supply to some extent is also
under producers' control.
Demand is a more nebulous measure; it's rarely fully known until after
the transaction occurs. Still, it is demand that has rallied the corn
market; it is demand that has made it possible for our industry to enjoy
unprecedented prices for an extended period of time. It is demand that
will take corn to new price levels, as well.
It's unfortunate our industry has always been so supply-driven and cost
of production-oriented. Just imagine what we could have done if we'd
focused on growing the top line instead.
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