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Waiting For Traction

The most cattle producers can expect from the economic stimulus packages is a stronger economy — just what demand needs.


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That doesn't necessarily mean the stimulus packages themselves equate to a net debt.

“With government spending, it comes down to whether the money is being spent on things that will bring back an economic return. As an example, spending money for improvements to infrastructure can foster economic growth. If we spend money that way, then assuming additional debt isn't necessarily a bad thing,” says Anderson. “But debt still has to be paid and the only way for the government to do it is with spending cuts and increased taxes. And, I don't know that you can cut spending enough to pay for it.”

Likewise, Anderson points out some EESA money spent in loans as part of the Troubled Asset Relief Program might be repaid at a lofty interest rate.

As for the threat of inflation, though the $1.5 trillion in government spending stimulus poses risk, it's not a given.

“It is clear to me that in this environment, inflation is unlikely to present a serious threat given the pervasive bias in the U.S. economy toward wage cuts and freezes, rising unemployment, the widespread loss in wealth that has resulted from both the housing and equity-market corrections, continually declining consumption and business investment and the anemic condition of the banking and credit system, all of which reinforce downside price pressures in a global economy groaning with excess capacity,” Fisher says.

In some ways, the primary threat to increased inflation is successfully putting the recession behind us.

“At some point, the economy will recover and interest rates will go up,” Anderson says. “Interest rates are related to the supply of money, but also to expectations about inflation. … I tend to think we'll see increased inflation in the future, but I don't know to what degree.”

Consumers are doing their part to stem inflation; they're spending less and saving more, exactly the opposite of what will lead the country beyond this recession.

That's because consumer spending adds up to about two-thirds of America's annual gross domestic product. The balance is comprised of government spending (20%) and private investment (16%), says Amanor-Boadu.

“Even when the government pumps money into the economy, consumers still have to spend it,” he says.

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