My View From The Country

Nov. 6 Could Bring Romney & GOP Majorities In Both Houses

The opportunity to square off against an incumbent with the worst economic record since the Great Depression isn’t a scenario that rolls around too often.

Vote in this week's poll on the candidates here.

Virtually everyone expected this election to be extremely close, and that a handful of swing states, particularly Ohio, would hold the key to victory. In fact, the latest poll in Ohio indicates a dead heat between Obama and Romney at 48 to 48.

The popular vote, however, isn’t the issue; the key is attaining 270 electoral votes. While it’s mathematically possible for both candidates to get to 270 electoral votes without winning Ohio, it will be particularly difficult for the Romney campaign. Most pundits say the next president of the U.S. will be known when the winner in Ohio is declared.

But the pundits have been wrong on some major points. The consensus early on was that this election would be a referendum on Obama’s presidency. Instead, it’s been a referendum on Romney, and to a lesser degree, on the Republican Party.

A Closer Look: New Poll Indicates BEEF Readers Approved Of Romney In First Debate

Interestingly, Romney capitalized on the debates to overcome hundreds of millions of dollars spent by the Democratic machine to mischaracterize and destroy him. Though Romney’s favorability ratings have improved dramatically down the home stretch, the Obama campaign continues to focus on criticizing him rather than talk about the past four years or promote their vision for the next four years. Meanwhile, the Romney campaign is focused on expressing optimism and defining its vision for the future.

But the road to a Republican victory isn’t an easy one. Romney/Ryan must win the overwhelming majority of the swing states to have any chance of acquiring the necessary 270 electoral votes to win the White House.

This is a difficult challenge because of the growing influence of certain demographics for Democrats. For instance, pundits say the Hispanic electorate has increased by 64% since 2004, and that nearly 70% of that vote will favor the Democratic Party. The numbers of other minority groups, particularly the black vote, are even more dominant for the Democrats.

Election Resource: Romney, Obama Respond On Key Agriculture Issues

If Romney is able to build a winning coalition it will be because of a shift among a few key groups. For instance, Jewish support for the Democratic ticket is expected to be softer this election due to Obama’s weak posture toward Israel. And Romney has dramatically narrowed the gender gap in the last couple of weeks, but this growing support among women is thought to be due primarily to concerns about the dismal economy, which has disproportionately affected women. That movement by women, however, likely doesn’t signify a long-term trend in favor of Republicans.

Romney could well win this election; he has the momentum late in the game and it seems to be growing in strength. In fact, thanks to Obama’s dismal record, this election could produce a Republican president, a stronger Republican majority in the House, and even a narrow majority in the Senate.

At the same time, however, with important demographic constituencies trending away from Republicans, the GOP could find itself in control of the federal government but incapable of being able to compete long term at a national level without recreating itself. The opportunity to square off against an incumbent with the worst economic record since the Great Depression isn’t a scenario that rolls around too often.

Discuss this Blog Entry 12

Anonymous (not verified)
on Oct 26, 2012

I commented on the voting ballot article in this same weekly blog. I believe that Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan will bring respect back to the Presidential office. We need a leader that has successful experience in the private sector.
Obama was scary 4 years ago because we knew very little about him and he had never had a "real" job. He scares me even more now for all the Executve Oders he has issued in the last 40 months. Check it out on Google.

Mike Armstrong (not verified)
on Oct 26, 2012

How short your memory is. Remember what Obama inherited?

Bush's tax cuts and spending increases brought us a return to permanent deficits.

Economists estimate that our invasion of Iraq, pulled off by a series of lies by the Bush administration, has so far cost us $3 trillion. That’s $30,000 per household (actually quite a bit more, since our children will be paying that debt off for the rest of their lives, with interest, and because the rich won’t be contributing their fair share, because Bush cut taxes for the wealthy--at a time when the economy was in a spiral!

Bush cronies ignored the excesses on Wall Street. How many insider trading cases did Bush’s SEC bring? What significant investor abuses did his SEC expose?

After 9/11, Bush’s guidance was “Go shopping”. Don’t worry about accumulating debt, don’t make sacrifices, don’t invest in the future…just go out and buy stuff.

Bush’s unwillingness to reduce the our dependence on fossil fuels left us behind the rest of the developed world in preparing for a post-oil future.

And whistle-blowers? Forget it. Bush fired even his top people for telling the truth. Paul O'Neill was ousted from Treasury for warning about deficits. Larry Lindsey was fired when he said the Iraq war would cost $100 - $200 billion. No wonder he couldn't react intelligently to economic problems like the housing bubble – he lived in his own fantasy bubble.

The financial collapse? Throw $700 billion at the people who caused it and hope that fixes it.

Now you want Romney? Here’s the view of David Stockman, Ronald Reagan’s budget director: “… Mitt Romney was not a businessman; he was a master financial speculator who bought, sold, flipped, and stripped businesses. He did not build enterprises the old-fashioned way … Instead, he spent his 15 years raising debt in prodigious amounts on Wall Street so that Bain could purchase the pots and pans and castoffs of corporate America, leverage them to the hilt, gussy them up as reborn “roll-ups,” and then deliver them back to Wall Street for resale ...” You really want Romney to take the reins of the world’s most powerful government? His economic adviser, Kevin Hassett, was advising people to jump into the stock market at the height of the dotcom bubble in 1999 by arguing that the Dow would increase to 36,000 within 3 to 5 years. He has consistently argued that it’s good for the wealthy to pay a smaller percentage of their income in taxes than the middle class. In other words, income inequality — unfairness — is good for America. Buffett’s secretary should have a higher tax rate than Buffett, right, Mitt?

I’m no Obama fan. Covert drones, a CIA able to run rampant with no checks or transparency, no privacy from the unchecked Surveillance State, American citizens targeted by the President for assassination with no due process, whistle-blowers threatened with life imprisonment for “espionage,” and the Fed able to dole out trillions to bankers in secret, and a substantially higher risk of war with Iran. But Romney would likely accelerate those trends while driving the economy into the manure pond.

Anonymous (not verified)
on Nov 1, 2012

Yes he inherited a mess but hasn't exactly done the best to correct it. Republicans had a hearing on the house on fannie and freddie mac to discuss it long before the bubble happened, and what did Maxine Waters, Barney Frank and a other democrats say, Its ok nothing to worry about. How is it fair that rich people pay a smaller percentage of their income but a higher actual dollar figure for taxes. When 46% of americans don't pay income taxes I think that should be an issue we need to look at not how we can steal more money from the rich. Obama already drove it into the manure pond so Romney can't do worst.

RR (not verified)
on Oct 26, 2012

Have yet to see numbers of Rep's & Dem's up for reelection. Seems we are focusing on Presidential platforms that are unlikely to be implimented due to congressional inaction or lack of support.

Anonymous (not verified)
on Oct 26, 2012

As Clint Eastwood said:

"And when somebody does not do the job, we gotta let them go."

Obama had four long years to do the job. He not only didn't do the job, he made things far worse in every area. He also succeeded in horribly dividing the country along economic, religious, gender and racial lines with his cynical messages meant to pit these groups against one another.

It would be the highest form of racism to retain him....in other words, be accepting of his failed presidency simply because of race. We have come too far as a society to have a dual system of measuring results where less is expected from an individual simply because of his skin color..

Anonymous (not verified)
on Oct 26, 2012

We have seen higher prices in cattle,hogs,lambs, all aspects of livestock and all the grains are higher than ever what are the farmers complaning about. The stock market has gained more than 7,000 points things are turning around and it can not be acomplished over night. Vote for Obama

Anonymous (not verified)
on Nov 1, 2012

You forgot to mention higher costs to attain those higher prices, more goverment regulation and oversee, alot more goverment debt, and I general sense of instability. My 401K is barely treading water, if it wasn't for the huge gains I made in the Bush era it would be gone already.

Don (not verified)
on Oct 28, 2012

Boy, I'd like to see where the stock market gained 7,000 points......

Anonymous (not verified)
on Oct 30, 2012

I replied earlier the stock market was 6,000 give or take a few when Obama took office since then it has risen over 7000 13000 0r above
sorry for the earlier statement

Anonymous (not verified)
on Oct 29, 2012

Our " community organizer" is way in over his head and dragging the rest of us,those who work for a living, down with him.This election is clearly a vote for a bigger government, one that takes from those who work,dream and try to prosper, or a vote for a government that was founded on liberty and justice for all that promotes a smaller goverment and a private "work" sector that makes this country run. How many times can you stand having Obama/Biden's "redistribution of wealth" ?

Anonymous (not verified)
on Oct 29, 2012

the stock market gained 7,000 points after Obama took office
it was a little over 6,000 when he took office sorry for not stating that. it is now over 13,000

on Nov 4, 2012

Even some of the cheerleading media is coming around to what a disaster Obama is. Today, long-time Dem-leaning New York Daily News joined a list of about a dozen papers that endorsed Obama in 2008 and are now endorsing Romney.

Among the papers switching to Romney are:

The New York Daily News
Long Island Newsday
Houston Chronicle
Fort Worth Star-Telegram
Orlando Sentinel
Ft. Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel
Nashville Tennessean
Des Moines Register
Illinois Daily Herald
Los Angeles Daily News
Los Angeles Press-Telegram

Only one newspaper, The San Antonio Express-News, which endorsed the Republican presidential nominee in 2008, Arizona Sen. John McCain, has switched to endorsing Obama this year.

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What's My View From The Country?

As a fulltime rancher, opinion contributor Troy Marshall brings a unique perspective on how consumer and political trends affect livestock production.

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Troy Marshall

Troy Marshall is a multi-generational rancher who grew up in Wheatland, WY, and obtained an Equine Science/Animal Science degree from Colorado State University where he competed on both the livestock...

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